Israel’s exit polls deny Netanyahu a majority, and he still claims a mandate while polls shift overnight

Full analysis

What happened Why it matters How each country tells it Where accounts conflict Room for disagreement Our assessment Sources and evidence

What happened

Israel’s first Knesset election since the October 7, 2023 Hamas-led attack closed at 10 p.m. on Tuesday, October 27, with every mainstream projection showing the same thing: neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc nor the opposition bloc led by former army chief Gadi Eisenkot would reach the 61 seats needed to govern the 120-seat Knesset. Within hours, however, the numbers moved toward Netanyahu, and shortly after 4 a.m. he claimed a mandate anyway.

The first exit polls, published by Channels 11, 12 and 13, gave the opposition the edge. Al-Shorouk’s live log, relaying the Israeli financial daily Calcalist and other outlets in Cairo time, records Channel 13 at 23:01 projecting the opposition at 53 seats to Netanyahu’s 50 with Arab parties on 17; by 00:05 the three channels had converged on 52 for the opposition, 50 for Netanyahu’s camp and 18 for the Arab parties. Likud was still the largest party in every projection — 25 in the early Kan estimate, 27 later — against 21-22 for Eisenkot’s Yashar.

Opposition leaders treated the first numbers as a verdict. Eisenkot called Netanyahu ‘now a caretaker prime minister,’ urged security chiefs to ‘stand firm against any attempt to challenge you,’ and warned: ‘Netanyahu, do not dare use security for political purposes.’ Yair Lapid called it a ‘total collapse’ for the bloc; Yair Golan said the public had ‘fired the Netanyahu government.’ Netanyahu’s allies pushed back within the night: Gideon Sa’ar called the celebrations premature, Aryeh Deri urged waiting for the count, and Itamar Ben-Gvir warned against a ‘paralysis’ unity government with Eisenkot.

The projections then reversed. At 02:02 Cairo time Channel 13 had the camps level at 51 each; by 03:22, Calcalist relayed a Channel 12 update putting Netanyahu’s camp ahead 52-49. The only poll the log records crossing the line was Channel 14’s, relayed at 02:04, which gave Netanyahu’s camp 62 seats with Liberman below the threshold.

Netanyahu’s speech, which Anadolu Agency leads with, came next. Standing before Likud supporters he said he awaited actual results, called Likud the largest party, claimed the right-wing bloc held a ‘decisive majority’ among the ‘Zionist public,’ and attacked any government reliant on Arab parties, whom he called ‘anti-Zionist.’ By Wednesday morning, the Central Elections Committee announced after more than three million votes counted that his bloc was on track for 56 seats — Likud 27, United Torah Judaism 8, Shas 7, Otzma Yehudit 7 and Religious Zionist Party 6 — against 48 for the opposition.

Two further numbers locked in the dilemma. Turnout reached 77.7 percent, up 7.1 points on 2022 and, per Anadolu, the highest since 1999. The Arab parties were projected at a combined 16 to 19 seats, a record that made them the pivot both camps have renounced: Netanyahu attacked any government resting on them, and every opposition leader except Golan has ruled out relying on them. Two small right-wing parties, Ofer Winter’s People of Israel and Yoaz Hendel’s Reservists-Economic party, were projected below the 3.25 percent threshold, costing Netanyahu potential partners. The Jerusalem Post reports the deadlock could end in another election, though coalition talks may yet produce an agreement; official results are expected November 4.

Why it matters

Beyond the identity of the next prime minister, the result decides the next phase of the war that has defined Israel since October 7. The candidates said so on the night: Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich vowed new settlements in Gaza and continued presence in Lebanon, while Eisenkot promised conscription and told the security establishment not to accept a use of national security ‘for political purposes.’ Two policy futures, and neither has the votes.

The coalition arithmetic is the bottleneck. Netanyahu’s projected 56 seats leave him five short of 61, and the parties that could close the gap are the ones he spent the night denouncing; his route runs through the small right-wing parties below the threshold or defectors. Eisenkot’s 48 leave him thirteen short, and the Arab parties’ 16-19 seats are the only bloc large enough to fill it — yet every opposition leader except Golan has ruled them out, and Eisenkot refuses to serve under Netanyahu even in rotation. Both camps have publicly disowned the one route that could give them power, which is what turns a close result into an open question. On November 4, official results may firm the arithmetic; the weeks of coalition talks after it will test whether any of the renunciations bend.

How each country tells it

• 🇮🇱
  jpost.com · Israel · original reporting

  The exit polls rebuke Netanyahu but still leave his bloc the largest; the story is parliamentary arithmetic showing his bloc at 56 and the opposition at 48, with no 61-seat majority.
• 🇪🇬
  Al-Shorouk · Egypt · carries Calcalist

  The vote is still moving: a minute-by-minute log tracks the count, shifting exit polls and coalition talk as provisional rather than settled.
• 🇯🇴
  JO24 · Jordan · original reporting

  The Arab bloc’s historic advance is the headline, framed as Netanyahu’s defeat and Eisenkot’s camp’s win.
• 🇹🇷
  Anadolu Agency · Turkey · original reporting

  Builds the story around Netanyahu’s claim of a mandate for a right-wing government, with his bloc’s shortfall in the subordinate clause.
• 🇮🇩
  CNN Indonesia · Indonesia · original reporting

  The deadlock reads as Netanyahu narrowly ahead but far from victory: damaged but not finished.

Where accounts conflict

The one numerical contradiction in the set comes from a single poll. Al-Shorouk’s log records that Channel 14’s exit poll, relayed by the Israeli site Emess at 02:04 Cairo time, put Netanyahu’s camp at 62 seats — a majority, with Liberman below the threshold. Every other projection says the opposite: Channels 11, 12 and 13, as carried by the Jerusalem Post and Anadolu, kept Netanyahu’s camp short of 61 all night and into Wednesday morning, at 51 to 56 seats. Both are named exit polls; official results have not replaced either.

The other apparent conflict dissolves on inspection. JO24’s headline of Netanyahu’s defeat and an Eisenkot win looks incompatible with the deadlock arithmetic in the Jerusalem Post and Anadolu — but Al-Shorouk’s timestamps show they describe different hours: the opposition’s 53-50 edge at 23:01 had become a 52-49 Netanyahu-camp lead by 03:22. The framings bracket one moving count rather than dispute each other.

Room for disagreement

The strongest case for a right-wing government forming anyway is the arithmetic Netanyahu himself is using. His bloc is the largest by a distance — 56 to 48 in the Central Elections Committee’s partial count — and Channel 14’s poll gave it the 62 seats nothing else did. The Jerusalem Post notes exit polls have differed from final results before, and two small right-wing parties sit near the 3.25 percent threshold; if either crosses it in the official count, Netanyahu’s camp gains seats no current projection includes. His speech made the argument directly: a ‘decisive majority’ within the ‘Zionist public,’ with Arab seats outside the legitimate count. The opposition has done half his work, ruling out the only bloc that could lift Eisenkot to 61. On this reading, the deadlock is a polling artifact that will firm in the one direction with a party able to move first.