Ynet leads with Trump’s late endorsement; Al-Manar, Vetogate and The Nation open from poll arithmetic denying either camp 61 seats

Full analysis

What happened Why it matters How each country tells it Room for disagreement Our assessment Sources and evidence

What happened

Israel votes Tuesday in the first Knesset election since the October 7, 2023 attack, with Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud and Gadi Eisenkot’s new Yashar party both polling short of the 61 seats required to form a government. Al-Manar explicitly calls it the first such vote since October 7; The Nation gives the Tuesday, October 27 date. Al-Manar adds that this is the 26th Knesset, 120 seats are at stake, the threshold is 3.25%, and it is the first Israeli election not called early since 1988.

The factual spine here comes from one reporting chain. Ynet’s political desk broke the final pre-election development, quoting Trump’s Truth Social post published just over 24 hours before polls open. The poll arithmetic carried by Al-Manar, Vetogate and The Nation travels from the same Israeli surveys — Kantar for Kan 11 on October 4 and 11, and Channel 14 and i24NEWS on October 18 — and from the Maariv report on coalition rules that Vetogate cites. The National’s Gaza interviews are the one clearly separate reporting contribution.

Trump’s post republished his endorsement from a week earlier, urging Israelis to vote for Netanyahu, and claimed Iran now has no navy or air force and inflation at 301%. Ynet reports the post followed requests from Netanyahu’s people and that White House officials read it as a "sign of desperation". Al-Manar separately reports Trump entering the battle. Netanyahu’s closing campaign also used AI-generated images of a nuclear bomb over Tel Aviv, which Vetogate reports; Eisenkot called it "a hysterical state", and Ynet quotes him accusing Netanyahu of fear, lies and threats, adding "this time it won’t work."

Polls set Yashar at 21-23 seats and Likud at 20-29 across the four surveys, though Al-Manar’s West Bank correspondent cites a narrower 18-21 for Likud. Neither side reaches 61. Al-Manar expects a national unity government built around Likud and Yashar; Vetogate stresses that Israeli law does not automatically give the largest party the right to form a government, and The Nation notes Eisenkot could win seats but fail to assemble a coalition.

The October 7 reckoning sits beneath this. Al-Manar reports that Yashar asked the attorney general to examine whether Netanyahu provided false information about the failures before the attack, including the omission of warnings in an intelligence document prepared four days earlier, and cites a three-year prison provision. The report says no Netanyahu comment was published. Opposition leader Yair Lapid warned that keeping Netanyahu in power could lead to a repeat attack, and Al-Manar also reports that Netanyahu asked for a paragraph to be deleted from an interview in which he said he did not shirk responsibility.

Gazan voices are the other independent strand. In interviews with The National, Munir Isleem, Ahmed Sammour and Amal Al Hinnawi all want Netanyahu gone but expect no new beginning, their immediate concerns being shelter, food, water and rebuilding. The National adds that Eisenkot opposes Palestinian statehood and restrictions on settlement expansion, and both unnamed analysts say Netanyahu and Eisenkot represent different methods of the same security objectives.

Why it matters

The vote will shape whether the Gaza war, the West Bank conflict and any renewed confrontation with Iran continue under the same leadership or a new one that, by The Nation’s reading, may manage occupation more competently without changing it. Netanyahu’s government is the first to complete a full term since 1973, according to Al-Manar, and its wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran are being sold as achievements. The failure to secure any camp a projected majority means the real contest begins only after polls close, when Israel’s president consults parties and picks who can actually assemble 61 seats. Vetogate points to the 2009 precedent: Tzipi Livni’s Kadima won 28 seats to Netanyahu’s 27, yet President Shimon Peres tasked Netanyahu. That history matters now because Herzog’s calls for unity have so far found, in Vetogate’s words, no echo in the "change camp".

The US dimension is tangible. Trump’s Truth Social pitch is an American president trying to move Israeli voters in the final day; Ynet reports White House officials see the extra posting as a sign Netanyahu is desperate, and its coverage notes endorsements failed Viktor Orban in February and a Trump-backed candidate lost to Lula in Brazil overnight. Herzog, quoted by Ynet, says no outside leader can interfere in his judgment: who can form a coalition is a different question from who supports whom.

How each country tells it

• 🇮🇱
  Ynet · Israel · original reporting

  Reports the final 24 hours as domestic campaign news: Trump’s new Truth Social endorsement of Netanyahu, Eisenkot’s counterattack, Herzog’s comments, and the White House reading of the endorsement as desperation.
• 🇪🇬
  Vetogate · Egypt · opinion

  Skips the campaign and lays out post-election coalition scenarios: no party automatically forms a government, Herzog’s unity appeals go nowhere, and a 2009 Tzipi Livni-style surprise remains possible.
• 🇱🇧
  Al-Manar · Lebanon · opinion

  Frames the vote through the resistance axis: Netanyahu is selling the Gaza, Lebanon and Iran wars as achievements, Trump has entered the battle, and a change of prime minister would not change occupation policy.
• 🇦🇪
  The National · United Arab Emirates · original reporting

  Turns the Knesset vote over to named Gazans who want Netanyahu gone but expect no ‘new beginning’, their immediate concerns being shelter, food, water and rebuilding.
• 🇺🇸
  The Nation · United States · opinion

  Argues the central question is whether replacing Netanyahu with former general Gadi Eisenkot would change Israel’s occupation and war policies, or merely make them more disciplined and palatable.

Room for disagreement

The strongest case against expecting a post-vote deadlock is that Netanyahu has repeatedly built coalitions from fragmented arithmetic. Vetogate describes his command of "divide and rule" and the ability to hold ideologically contradictory partners together, and it raises the 2009 Livni scenario only to show that the largest party need not govern. Al-Manar’s correspondent notes Netanyahu’s camp has ideological cohesion, while the opposition is united mainly by opposition to him. In that reading, Tuesday may simply begin another round of Netanyahu’s coalition arithmetic, with Trump’s late boost enough to consolidate right-wing voters and small parties that would otherwise fall below the 3.25% threshold.