Fifty leaders gather in Dublin to claim a Ukraine role; EU officials concede no negotiator will be named

Full analysis

What happened Why it matters How each country tells it Room for disagreement Our assessment Sources and evidence

What happened

Roughly 50 leaders gathered in Dublin on Thursday, November 12, for the ninth summit of the European Political Community. The EPC is the informal forum set up in 2022 after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Taoiseach Micheál Martin is hosting as part of Ireland’s six-month presidency of the EU Council, European Council President António Costa is chairing, and an informal meeting of EU leaders follows on Friday, November 13. The PA Media copy carried by the Irish Mirror gives the theme as "Europe – strong, secure and connected." The agenda covers the economy, Ukraine, hybrid threats, efforts to undermine democracy, and AI. The Irish Mirror calls the event the biggest security operation in the history of the Irish state. LRT quotes Garda Commissioner Liam Geraghty, via Politico, calling it bigger than a US presidential visit. Kyiv Post, citing The Journal, counts more than 300 garda motorcyclists and escorts for arriving leaders.

Events elsewhere overtook that agenda. TIB reported on November 11 that two days of US-mediated talks between Russia and Ukraine had just ended in Abu Dhabi. On the day the summit opened, US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were to see Vladimir Putin in Moscow and then fly to Dublin to brief Volodymyr Zelensky. Zelensky landed at Baldonnel military air base shortly before 4:15 p.m. on Wednesday and met Martin at Government Buildings. He said on Telegram that he had meetings scheduled with about 20 leaders. He told AFP there was "this window of opportunity, when all those participants who are now engaged in the negotiation process, genuinely want to achieve a result before 2027." Davyd Arakhamia, a member of Ukraine’s delegation, said a date for the next round should be set only after the envoys’ Moscow trip and their meeting with Zelensky, according to Kyiv Post.

Europe came to Dublin as an outsider to those talks. Kyiv Post reports that Britain, France, Germany, Italy, NATO and the European Commission held separate meetings with the Ukrainian and US teams in Abu Dhabi but "never directly joined the negotiations with Russia." It adds that Washington wants Europe included in future rounds. Kushner set the price after Abu Dhabi, in a remark carried by both Rossiyskaya Gazeta and LRT. If Europe could find one person to speak for it, he said, that would be a bigger achievement than persuading Russia to include it.

EU officials themselves say that person will not come out of Dublin. Rossiyskaya Gazeta quotes a European official speaking to the Financial Times: the question "has been discussed for too long, it is complicated. There are no expectations." Brussels, the official said, wants at least a "single coherent message." LRT quotes a senior EU official who briefed reporters in Brussels on Wednesday. Asked whether he expected agreement on a special representative, he said his answer would be "no." Rossiyskaya Gazeta reports that Friday’s meeting will cover only the powers of the post and the structure of a negotiating team, and that names are unlikely before December. Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov told the paper that Europe "cannot yet" choose one.

LRT reports the names in circulation. They include Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre, who called Putin together. LRT notes the obstacles: Norway is not an EU member, Stubb does not sit on the European Council, and their call drew criticism. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda told LRT that Costa was "the simplest legal way." He said he did not want to speculate before the conversation had even taken place.

Rossiyskaya Gazeta alone sets out Moscow’s case against giving Europe a seat. Vladimir Medinsky, who led Russia’s delegation, says Russia has received "not a single concrete peace proposal" from European countries and does not "really understand what can be talked about with them." Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov warns that European inclusion could mean "rollback and disruption" of efforts he described as not useless. The paper also quotes EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas: Europe will back Ukraine whatever happens in the talks, and sanctions on Moscow will be strengthened. PA Media, alone among these reports, says UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham was expected to announce further sanctions against Russia in Dublin and to co-chair a security and defense roundtable.

Two arrivals show how wide the gathering was. Nausėda told LRT he does not expect a ceasefire. He predicted that Russia would use the coming winter "to torment the Ukrainian people," while noting that a prisoner release had been agreed. The Canadian Press, via the Winnipeg Free Press, reports that Mark Carney attended for one day as the only non-European leader. He held talks with Greece and Cyprus, which have not ratified the decade-old EU-Canada trade deal, before flying to Manila.

All five reports were filed before the summit opened or on its first day. None records what Dublin decided.

Why it matters

Kushner’s remark shifts the burden onto Europe. Washington says it wants Europe at the table, but if Europe cannot name someone to sit there, the question of whether Russia would accept a European seat never has to be answered. Moscow has said, through Ryabkov, that it would prefer not to answer it.

The subject Europe is shut out of is its own security. LRT reports that in Abu Dhabi, Russia demanded a review of Europe’s security architecture. Nausėda rejected that outright: there should be "no spheres of influence," and NATO’s role must stand. For a frontline state like Lithuania, that is the core concern. Under Arakhamia’s sequencing, Europe’s views reach the process as part of a briefing from American envoys coming back from the Kremlin. They do not arrive as a negotiating position of its own.

That leaves Europe with the tools it already controls: sanctions, as Kallas and PA’s account of Burnham’s plans indicate, and financial support for Ukraine. Neither depends on Moscow’s consent, and neither buys a seat.

How each country tells it

• 🇮🇪
  Irish Mirror · Ireland · wire copy

  Presents the ninth European Political Community meeting as the largest security operation in Irish history and sets out the official theme, ‘Europe – strong, secure and connected,’ but most of its detail concerns British Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s plans, including expected new Russia sanctions.
• 🇷🇺
  Rossiyskaya Gazeta · Russia · opinion

  Casts the Dublin leaders as ‘those waiting’ for whatever Witkoff and Kushner bring back from Putin, and says in advance that Europe will agree neither a common approach nor a negotiator.
• 🇺🇦
  Kyiv Post · Ukraine · carries The Journal

  Follows Zelensky’s arrival and schedule of about 20 leader meetings, and treats Dublin as the step before he hears from the US envoys returning from Moscow, on which Kyiv says the date of the next round depends.
• 🇱🇹
  LRT (Lithuanian National Radio and Television) · Lithuania · original reporting

  Interviews President Nausėda in Dublin. He doubts a ceasefire can be expected, rejects any ‘spheres of influence’ in a revised European security order, and names António Costa as the simplest legal choice to negotiate for Europe.
• 🇨🇦
  Winnipeg Free Press · Canada · wire copy

  Reports Mark Carney attending for one day as the only non-European leader at the table, holding bilateral talks with Greece and Cyprus over the unratified EU-Canada trade deal, and leaving that night for Manila.

Room for disagreement

The best case against this reading comes from Stubb, quoted by Rossiyskaya Gazeta. He says it is "quite likely" that Europeans will sit at the table, and that a technical-level meeting of Americans, Ukrainians, Russians and Europeans could happen within one to two weeks. If that happens, a technical format would bring Europe in without anyone first settling who speaks for it. Kyiv Post’s report that Washington wants Europe included gives Stubb some support.

The negotiator question may also be less open than it looks. The senior EU official quoted by LRT said that under the treaties, EU institutions should represent the bloc on collective matters. Nausėda’s remark about Costa points the same way. A default choice that already has a treaty basis could be adopted quickly once leaders stop arguing about names. And Rossiyskaya Gazeta, as the Russian government’s daily, has an interest in presenting Europe as divided, which is a reason to discount its framing.