Ukrainian MP tells Ukrinform a swap is only possible; AP calls defence minister Umerov a spy chief

Full analysis

What happened Why it matters How each country tells it Where accounts conflict Room for disagreement Our assessment Sources and evidence

What happened

The trilateral that opened in Abu Dhabi on November 10 — the first such Russia–Ukraine–US round since February — closed its first day after roughly four hours with no announced agreement of any kind. The only suggestion that prisoners might be swapped came not from the table but from a Ukrainian parliamentarian speaking afterwards: Oleksandr Merezko, who chairs the Verkhovna Rada’s foreign-policy committee, told Ukrinform an exchange is "possible," then dismissed the round itself as "negotiations for the sake of negotiations." Ukrinform’s own headline held out the possibility — Ukraine and Russia "may conduct a large-scale exchange" — but nothing in the five sources records a deal.

The day followed a familiar choreography. US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff mediated, with Kushner telling delegates the US had "some good ideas" and that President Trump had asked for "extra effort" toward a solution. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking in Paris, called the first day "very productive" but said "a lot of work" remained and the trilateral "should eventually include our European partners." Russia was led again by Vladimir Medinsky, who said his delegation had "become bigger and more professional"; it included Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov and senior military and intelligence officials. Ukraine’s chief negotiator, Defence Minister Rustem Umerov, set his side’s priorities as a "cessation of hostilities, reliable post-war security guarantees, Ukraine’s economic recovery and development, as well as humanitarian steps," according to his Telegram post quoted by the exiled Moscow Times. Zelenskyy’s own readout, carried by Ukrinform, listed humanitarian steps, prisoner release, security guarantees and de-escalation.

Before the main session, Umerov’s team, the US envoys and representatives of the UK, France, Germany, Italy, NATO and the European Commission met to "align our positions," the Moscow Times reported. The Europeans are in Abu Dhabi for consultations only — Moscow rejects their presence in the trilateral, and a Russian delegation source told Reuters and AFP that Europe’s broader security architecture is a central objective. Washington wants them at the table eventually.

The substantive divide is unchanged and appears in all three process accounts. Putin demands Ukraine’s withdrawal from Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, abandonment of its NATO bid, limits on its military, and the lifting of language and church restrictions; he refuses a general ceasefire lest Ukrainian forces regroup, and has threatened force. Kyiv wants an immediate ceasefire first, rejects ceding any territory it holds, and says only a direct Putin–Zelenskyy meeting can settle borders.

The talks sat against continuing strikes: Ukraine’s air force reported 162 Russian drones and a ballistic missile overnight, while Russia’s defence ministry said it downed 155 Ukrainian drones over eight regions and annexed Crimea. Two threads deserve naming. Merezko also said Putin "will not give up his demands… his position will not change one iota," and that Putin would only seriously negotiate the war’s end if forced; he called the Economist-reported idea of redrawing Donetsk and Luhansk borders so Putin could claim control without receiving Ukrainian-held towns "a provocation designed to split Ukrainian society" and "another pointless idea" — a proposal no US envoy has confirmed in any source. And the AP copy the New York Post ran introduces Umerov as "head of Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service"; he is Kyiv’s defence minister and chief negotiator, as the Moscow Times and Gulf News both state.

Why it matters

A prisoner exchange is the one concrete humanitarian deliverable a round like this can yield — it frees people and costs no one territory. Gulf News’s own timeline shows the early 2026 Abu Dhabi round produced exactly that: "a prisoner exchange but no peace settlement." Merezko’s "possible" therefore matters as the kind of step a hostile round can still produce, and it is the closest any source comes to a tangible outcome.

What the first day actually foregrounded is different: the scaffolding of a post-war European security order, not the war’s human costs. Kushner spoke of a framework involving Russia, Ukraine and Europe capable of "decades, if not centuries, of peace," and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, in the AP copy, welcomed the US putting "collective security" on top of the agenda. That is the prize Washington and Moscow are circling — and the one on which Europe, by the reporting, has no seat.

TV2’s Oslo commentary makes the point with the sharpest edge: the EU lost the round before it began, left "split, weak and placed exactly where Putin wants them — in the corridor." European capitals could not say whether they were attending or observing, who would speak, or even whether their presence would "be decided during the negotiations," as Germany’s government told TV2. The Europeans sent chiefs of staff and security advisers — von der Leyen’s Björn Seibert, Council President António Costa’s Anna-Maria Boura, France’s diplomatic-staff chief, Germany’s Günther Sautter, Britain’s Jonathan Powell — but they are there to consult, not negotiate, and the question of who speaks for Europe is deferred to the European Political Community meeting in Dublin on Thursday, after Abu Dhabi has ended.

How each country tells it

• 🇺🇦
  Ukrinform · Ukraine · original reporting

  A home-audience read of what Ukraine actually gets from the Abu Dhabi round: MP Oleksandr Merezko predicts a prisoner exchange is possible but calls the talks ‘negotiations for the sake of negotiations’ and dismisses the reported Donbas boundary-redrawing idea as a Putin provocation.
• 🌐
  The Moscow Times · Netherlands (exiled Russian outlet) · original reporting

  A neutral, low-expectation account of a ‘new round’ of US-mediated talks, focused on the shift from territorial disputes to a European security framework and on the separate European consultations.
• 🇦🇪
  Gulf News · United Arab Emirates · wire copy

  A host-city success story: the UAE welcomed the third round of trilateral negotiations, Sheikh Abdullah greeted the delegations, and Washington called the first day ‘very productive’ as it pushed for a European seat.
• 🇺🇸
  New York Post · United States · wire copy

  An AP wire account of the talks opening, balancing both sides’ maximal demands and framing the session as a renewed US push with no breakthrough in sight.
• 🇳🇴
  TV2 · Norway · opinion

  A Norwegian commentary arguing the EU has already lost the Abu Dhabi round by failing to secure a seat, looking split and weak, which is exactly where Putin wants Europe.

Where accounts conflict

The day’s central facts are not disputed. All five sources place the trilateral in Abu Dhabi on November 10, record the first day’s close after about four hours, carry Rubio’s "very productive" in some form, and lay out the same ceasefire-versus-territory impasse. The disagreements are narrower.

The first is the prisoner exchange itself. Ukrinform, through Merezko, reports it as possible. The Moscow Times does not mention prisoners in its account of the day, nor does Gulf News, nor the AP copy. The premise that the round produced or even agreed a large-scale exchange rests on one MP’s attributed speculation and nothing more.

The second is a fact about the Ukrainian delegation. The Moscow Times and Gulf News describe Umerov as Ukraine’s chief negotiator, which he is as defence minister; the AP copy makes him head of the Foreign Intelligence Service. A reader’s sense of who leads Kyiv’s side depends on which piece they open.

Room for disagreement

The strongest case that the story could still turn is structural. Rubio’s "very productive" was hedged with "a lot of work to be done"; Kushner’s "some good ideas" and Medinsky’s hope to "advance on the path towards peace" are opening courtesies, and no delegate in any source is recorded saying an agreement was close. But the precedent cuts the other way: Abu Dhabi produced a prisoner exchange in its previous round, and swaps have happened even as fighting intensified. A prisoner exchange is precisely the low-cost, high-visibility step both sides have taken before. If the second day yields one, the story changes shape entirely. Nothing in the first day’s readout says it will.